Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+181/-232).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -232.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Andy Dalton has been among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.67 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 2nd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 25.5 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.2%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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