Andy Dalton Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Andy Dalton Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-122/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (10.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.5% in games he has played).
Andy Dalton's ground effectiveness (6.17 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (81st percentile among quarterbacks).
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most yards in football (129 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
Andy Dalton has averaged just 1.6 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest rates in the league among quarterbacks (24th percentile).
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.