Andy Dalton Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-126).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most yards in the league (134 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Andy Dalton has picked up just 6.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in football among QBs (24th percentile).
Andy Dalton's rushing efficiency has worsened this year, averaging just 3.61 yards-per-carry vs a 6.17 figure last year.

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