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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-109/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 37.5% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned a staggering 35.1% of his team's air yards this year: 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 62.4.
  • With a stellar 84.3% Adjusted Catch% (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates among the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Lions.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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