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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+114/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +119 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up a staggering 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 83.6% to 87.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has earned 4.8% of his team's rush attempts near the goal line this year (96th percentile), is in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Detroit Lions red zone run game.

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

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