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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+118/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Lions being an enormous -10.5-point underdog this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 39.0% this year, which places him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (68.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown's 71.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 83.6% rate.
  • The Chicago defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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