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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-129/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -129.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Lions being an enormous -10.5-point underdog this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 11.7 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this year (32.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.1%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown's 71.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 83.6% rate.

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