Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 5.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (71.5%) versus wideouts this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (83.0%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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