Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 8.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 22.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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