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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 8.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (78.0).

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

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