Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 6, 2024 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Detroit Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 10.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 28.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 83.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 75.1% figure.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
After averaging 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big downtick this year, now boasting 62.0 per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 75.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a substantial reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 98.0 rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling just 3.34 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.55 rate last season.
The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 128.0) vs. WRs this year.

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