Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 9.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this season (31.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few more air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated many more receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best possession receivers in football, completing a stellar 79.0% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.