Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 57.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to grind out extra yardage has improved this season, accumulating 7.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.24 mark last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.6%) versus WRs this year (70.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this year (72.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.0%).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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