Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has received a whopping 22.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 81st percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 65.3%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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