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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+137/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +141 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued many more air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 71.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 49.1.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.7% to 75.7%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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