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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (30.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 83rd percentile for wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 88th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.43 per game.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.6%) versus WRs this year (70.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 68.0%.

The Chicago Bears defense has given up the 8th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.

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