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Ameer Abdullah

Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+910/-2400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Ameer Abdullah has garnered a measly 0.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • When talking about air yards, Ameer Abdullah grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a monstrous 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.4% red zone run rate.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • Ameer Abdullah's 4.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 14.4.
  • Ameer Abdullah's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a noteworthy boost in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.8% figure.

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