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Ameer Abdullah

Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-1550).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3900 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1550.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Out of all RBs this year, Ameer Abdullah grades out in the measly 1st percentile for red zone carries, comprising 0.0% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line.
  • When it comes to air yards, Ameer Abdullah grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an impressive 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the league this year.
  • Ameer Abdullah's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks an impressive growth in his receiving skills over last season's 89.8% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.1% red zone run rate.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the model to run just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • Ameer Abdullah's 4.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 14.4.
  • With a very bad rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Ameer Abdullah has been among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to RBs this year.

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