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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Saints, who are massive -14-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Saints rank as the 10th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to have 141.0 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game (9.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.2% in games he has played).
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • With a dreadful ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Alvin Kamara ranks among the worst receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (69.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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