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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • With an extraordinary 15.6% Red Zone Target% (91st percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.
  • In regards to air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the towering 91st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 5.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Alvin Kamara's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • The receiving TD field reads "0" on the back of Alvin Kamara's trading card this year.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

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