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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -158 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 136.5 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.6 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this game (12.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.9% in games he has played).
  • Alvin Kamara's 19.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on Alvin Kamara's player page this year.
  • The New England defensive ends project as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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