My Account Log Out
 
 
Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Alvin Kamara has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Alvin Kamara has compiled a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara has not caught any touchdowns this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™