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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-235).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -5-point underdogs.
  • With a 59.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in these situations has been the New Orleans Saints.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • With an elite 13.9% Red Zone Target Rate (90th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
  • Alvin Kamara has totaled a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • With an awful ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Alvin Kamara stands among the bottom receiving TD-scorers in football among RBs this year.
  • This year, the fierce Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a meager 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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