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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the league (40.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accrue 14.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
  • The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • After accounting for 63.9% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Alvin Kamara has been less involved in the rushing attack this season, currently making up only 52.0%.
  • Alvin Kamara has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
  • Alvin Kamara's running efficiency (3.30 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (11th percentile among RBs).

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