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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to run on 46.4% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 140.1 plays on offense run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The New Orleans Saints have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • This year, the porous Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a colossal 155.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
  • While Alvin Kamara has garnered 50.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of New Orleans's running game in this contest at 35.9%.
  • Alvin Kamara's 41.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a remarkable diminishment in his running proficiency over last season's 65.0 figure.
  • Alvin Kamara's rushing efficiency (3.44 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (18th percentile when it comes to RBs).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in football.

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