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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 18.1 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
  • This year, the shaky Atlanta Falcons run defense has been gouged for a whopping 137.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 6th-worst in football.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to run on 46.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Alvin Kamara has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (53.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (63.9%).
  • Alvin Kamara's 38.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his running prowess over last year's 65.0 rate.
  • Alvin Kamara's running efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a mere 3.24 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.00 mark last year.

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