Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2025

Updated Nov 24, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 18.1 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
This year, the shaky Atlanta Falcons run defense has been gouged for a whopping 137.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 6th-worst in football.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to run on 46.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (53.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (63.9%).
Alvin Kamara's 38.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his running prowess over last year's 65.0 rate.
Alvin Kamara's running efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a mere 3.24 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.00 mark last year.

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