Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 9:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-435).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -258 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -435.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.9% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (55.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (69.5% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

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