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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +127 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Saints, who are massive -14-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to have 141.0 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's 3.0 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a remarkable reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 4.8 figure.
  • This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded a meager 77.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
  • The Los Angeles Rams linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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