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Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-103/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.

The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In this contest, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.

The Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.

Alvin Kamara's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 34.0.

Alvin Kamara's play as a receiver has worsened this year, averaging a measly 3.1 adjusted catches compared to 4.8 last year.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

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Alvin Kamara ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 8