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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 136.5 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.6 plays per game.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Alvin Kamara's 19.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's 2.4 adjusted catches per game this year represents a noteable regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 4.8 mark.
  • When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, New England's DT corps has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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