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Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints offensive gameplan to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a giant -14.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 135.5 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.

In this week's game, Alvin Kamara is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

Alvin Kamara's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 34.0.

When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Alvin Kamara's pass-catching performance declined this season, accumulating just 2.2 adjusted catches vs 4.8 last season.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.5%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (76.5%).

More Alvin Kamara Player Props

Alvin Kamara ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 4