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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-132/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this game, Alvin Kamara is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets.
  • Alvin Kamara's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a meaningful progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 76.6% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's receiving performance has diminished this season, accumulating just 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 4.8 last season.
  • The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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