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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -5-point underdogs.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect Alvin Kamara to total 4.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
  • Alvin Kamara's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 76.5% to 82.8%.
  • As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Carolina's collection of LBs has been lousy this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging a measly 2.6 adjusted catches vs 4.8 last season.
  • This year, the fierce Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a meager 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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