Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-111/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +101 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 6.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara's 32.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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