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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this contest, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.
  • In regards to air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the towering 91st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 5.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Alvin Kamara's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's 16.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a material reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 35.0 figure.
  • Alvin Kamara's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 4.47 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 5.65 rate last year.
  • Alvin Kamara's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this year, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.90 rate last year.

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