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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-111/-111).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 140.1 plays on offense run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The New Orleans Saints have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • This week, Alvin Kamara is expected by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile among RBs with 4.9 targets.
  • Alvin Kamara has totaled a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Saints to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.2 per game) this year.
  • Alvin Kamara's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).

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