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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-106/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 139.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
  • The highest number of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a whopping 64.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
  • In this week's contest, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by the model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 55.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Alvin Kamara's 16.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last year's 35.0 mark.
  • Alvin Kamara's 3.5 adjusted yards per target this season shows a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 5.7 figure.
  • Alvin Kamara's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.90 rate last year.

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