My Account Log Out
 
 
Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Saints offensive gameplan to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a giant -14.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 135.5 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
  • In this week's game, Alvin Kamara is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
  • Alvin Kamara's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 34.0.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • Alvin Kamara's 12.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a material drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 35.0 mark.
  • Alvin Kamara's 4.7 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a noteworthy decline in his receiving ability over last year's 5.7 mark.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™