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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this game, Alvin Kamara is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets.
  • Alvin Kamara has compiled a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara has totaled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).
  • With a subpar 5.1 adjusted yards per target (15th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara has been as one of the bottom pass-catching running backs in the league.
  • Alvin Kamara's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a remarkable diminishment in his efficiency in space over last season's 7.9% mark.

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