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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -5-point underdogs.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect Alvin Kamara to total 4.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
  • Alvin Kamara has totaled a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Alvin Kamara's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 76.5% to 82.8%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Alvin Kamara's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.
  • Alvin Kamara's 14.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a material decline in his pass-catching talent over last year's 35.0 figure.
  • Alvin Kamara's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a measly 4.57 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.65 mark last season.

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