Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
Alvin Kamara's skills in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, averaging a mere 7.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 mark last year.
The Lions pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.6%) to running backs this year (69.6%).

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