Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to notch 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Alvin Kamara's 5.5 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a noteable decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 6.6 mark.
Alvin Kamara's 6.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a meaningful diminishment in his effectiveness in space over last year's 9.4% rate.
This year, the fierce Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a puny 6.6 YAC.

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