Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a colossal 6.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 28.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 99th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 29.0) vs. running backs this year.

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