Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a whopping 10.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 99th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Alvin Kamara's receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 6.06 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 mark last season.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.