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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+417/-919).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +439 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +417.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Alvin Kamara has notched a whopping 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara's 32.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 100th percentile for RBs.

Alvin Kamara grades out in the 99th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.38 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (16.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.0% in games he has played).

Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a mere 71.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.

The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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