Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:41 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.7 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has received 58.4% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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