Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 16.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has received 56.7% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.