Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 19.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has earned 59.3% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.