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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Allen Lazard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-1600).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 59.0% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football under these circumstances has been the New York Jets.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 131.0 total plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Allen Lazard's 69.0% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a meaningful boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 63.1% figure.
  • The Browns defense has been torched for the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.25 per game this year.
  • This year, the imposing Browns run defense has allowed a measly 0.38 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 51.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • While Allen Lazard has been responsible for 13.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in New York's passing offense near the end zone this week at 8.7%.
  • Allen Lazard has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
  • Allen Lazard's 14.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 38.7.

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