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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.4%) to wide receivers this year (71.4%).

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The Jets have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.

Allen Lazard's 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 54.3.

The New York offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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